Crashing space junk and statistical risk – what has this got to do with health?

It’s curious how according to some scientists, life can be categorised and described as events and statistical probability.

The past week, we’ve been inundated with the probability of NASA’s defunct UARS satellite smashing back into planet Earth. It has been predicted that the satellite would re-enter Earth on 23 Sept 2011 – plus-minus a day or so,

between 57 degrees North and South latitudes, with an 800 kilometres long debris belt as its final remains survive incineration through the atmosphere.

This got me thinking – what are the chances one of its rusty bolts would crash through my apartment window and leave a gaping hole in my head?

Reason.com published an article in Aug 2006 documenting the one-year risk of dying from various events if you are living on American soil:

-        car accident 1 : 6500

-        crossing the road 1 : 48,500

-        plane crash 1 : 400,000

-        lightning strike 1 : 6,200,000

-        terrorist attack (similar scale to 9/11) 1 : 100,000

-        asteroid impact 1 : 200,000 lifetime chance

Other data from America shows that:

-        dying from a marathon run is 1 : 50,000

-        lifetime risk of dying from cancer 23%

-        dying from heart disease 20%

-        dying from stroke 4%

So, the odds of a 40 by 60 km island like Singapore falling into that 800 km crash belt seems pretty small. But then again, we know NASA and the news agencies the world over are conducting a careful public relations exercise.

We should probably keep a close watch on NASA’s page – http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/uars/index.html for any updates on the satellite crash. And of course – stay indoors (far away from the windows just to be sure) during the predicted time of impact.

Thereafter, life will probably get back to normal – again. That’s when we can look at our lifetime risks in perspective, and schedule that long delayed health screening.